1 Game Profile

1.1 Estimated Outcomes on BGG

This table displays the selected game’s current values on four BGG outcomes (UsersRated, Average, GeekRating, Weight) along with my predictive model(s) estimated values for where these games are likely to end up.

Published	ID	Name	Type	UserRatings	Average	GeekRating	Weight
2021	301441	Drawn to Adventure	Current	191	6.85	5.62	1.83
			Estimated	300	7.61	5.80	2.90

To see more information about the game on boardgamegeek, click on the game’s ID or Name to go straight to the game’s profile page.

1.2 Game Description

Description
In Drawn to Adventure, you and up to three other adventurers will embark on an epic journey across the Five Realms, where you can use your skills and abilities to slay monsters and complete quests. You will have the chance to earn many rewards, such as mana to activate special powers; experience to level up your character; and—of course—glorious treasure! Drawn to Adventure is a campaign-driven, roll-&-write game. Each player uses a dry-erase flip-book that contains six different hex-grid maps. Campaigns are played over three of the six maps. After the third map is finished, the player with the most treasure wins. So grab your mighty pen and come along; fame and fortune await those who are truly Drawn to Adventure! —description from the publisher

1.3 Game Information

Information on the game’s designers, artists, families, mechanics and categories from BGG.

For the full profile of the selected game, click on the links in the table or go to https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/301441

1.4 Explaining Predictions

For each of the predictions above, I used models that were trained on historical boardgamegeek data in order to predict the selected game. How did the model(s) arrive at their predictions? The following plot displays Shapley values to indicate what features were most influential for the model’s predictions. Anything in blue increased the model’s predictions, anything in red decreased the model’s predictions.

2 Finding Similar Games

What games are similar to Drawn to Adventure? I compare the selected game to every other game on boardgamegeek based on its mechanics, playing time, complexity, and game type. The tables below display the games which had the most similar data to Drawn to Adventure. The reported similarity is the cosine similarity between the selected game and all other games published before 2021.

This similarity score ranges from -1 to 1, where similarity of 1 indicates that games are exactly identical (a game will have a score of 1 with itself).

Note: This analysis does not look at a game’s ratings on BGG, publisher, artist, or designer - it focuses on finding similar games based on how they play, not how they are rated or by their theme.

2.1 Most Similar Games

The table below displays games with the most similar data to Drawn to Adventure. Click on a game’s ID or Name to go straight to its profile on boardgamegeek.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2021	301441	Drawn to Adventure	1.00	5.62	6.85	2.90	191
1	2019	283863	The Magnificent	0.80	6.69	7.60	3.14	2,422
2	2020	267009	Rome & Roll	0.79	5.93	6.96	3.35	723
3	2010	73439	Troyes	0.75	7.55	7.74	3.46	20,747
4	1979	3160	Holy War	0.74	5.48	5.15	2.07	100
5	2020	306735	Under Falling Skies	0.74	7.30	7.86	2.46	6,083
6	2020	266188	Seven Bridges	0.73	5.74	7.58	2.50	264
7	1979	6896	MechWar 2: Red Star / White Star Modern Mechanized Combat in Europe	0.73	5.52	6.45	4.27	44
8	2019	284825	Florenza Dice Game	0.72	5.68	6.86	2.87	288
9	2014	150926	Roll Through the Ages: The Iron Age	0.72	5.96	6.62	2.24	1,223
10	1983	508	Blue Max	0.72	5.99	7.14	2.28	814
11	1979	3625	DeathMaze	0.71	5.54	5.99	1.69	248
12	2008	37380	Roll Through the Ages: The Bronze Age	0.71	6.68	6.87	1.78	11,754
13	1976	3083	Submarine	0.71	5.70	6.52	3.25	527
14	1977	5206	Ogre	0.70	6.33	6.95	2.34	2,759
15	2020	306577	Der Clou: Roll & Heist	0.70	5.56	8.02	2.20	77
16	1984	9569	The Last Starfighter Combat Game	0.70	5.51	5.82	1.50	37
17	2016	170561	Valeria: Card Kingdoms	0.69	6.89	7.45	2.00	4,782
18	2014	157809	Nations: The Dice Game	0.69	6.59	6.96	2.00	5,280
19	1981	2746	Asteroid Pirates: A Game of Ship to Ship Combat in the Asteroid Belts	0.69	5.50	5.54	2.60	31
20	1981	3670	Battlewagon	0.69	5.55	6.36	2.44	121
21	1993	6526	Dragon Lords	0.68	5.51	6.07	2.00	31
22	1993	5041	IDF (Israeli Defense Force)	0.68	5.60	6.97	3.71	146
23	2020	316546	Clever Cubed	0.68	6.51	7.62	2.52	1,635
24	1978	1773	Dawn of the Dead	0.68	5.56	6.03	2.15	229
25	2018	218421	Street Masters	0.68	6.51	8.13	2.85	1,204

Click on the ID or Name for any game to go its profile page on boardgamegeek.

2.2 Most Similar, Highly Rated Games

What games are similar to Drawn to Adventure while also being highly rated by the boardgamegeek community? In this table I multiply every neighboring game’s similarity score by its GeekRating. The resulting score is an attempt to balance these two quantities.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Score	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2021	301441	Drawn to Adventure	5.62	1.00	5.62	6.85	2.90	191
1	2010	73439	Troyes	5.63	0.75	7.55	7.74	3.46	20,747
2	2020	306735	Under Falling Skies	5.43	0.74	7.30	7.86	2.46	6,083
3	2019	283863	The Magnificent	5.38	0.80	6.69	7.60	3.14	2,422
4	2011	84876	The Castles of Burgundy	5.11	0.64	8.01	8.13	3.00	52,346
5	2012	121921	Robinson Crusoe: Adventures on the Cursed Island	4.93	0.65	7.64	7.81	3.80	38,200
6	2018	244522	That's Pretty Clever!	4.88	0.66	7.41	7.61	1.88	18,627
7	2017	192135	Too Many Bones	4.86	0.62	7.81	8.42	3.85	8,441
8	2016	170561	Valeria: Card Kingdoms	4.79	0.69	6.89	7.45	2.00	4,782
9	2008	37380	Roll Through the Ages: The Bronze Age	4.74	0.71	6.68	6.87	1.78	11,754
10	2019	269210	Twice as Clever!	4.67	0.66	7.05	7.49	2.35	6,645
11	2020	267009	Rome & Roll	4.67	0.79	5.93	6.96	3.35	723
12	2016	176734	The Manhattan Project: Energy Empire	4.64	0.64	7.20	7.78	3.05	5,342
13	2017	199561	Sagrada	4.58	0.62	7.36	7.51	1.93	31,978
14	2016	169426	Roll Player	4.58	0.63	7.28	7.50	2.42	16,563
15	2014	157809	Nations: The Dice Game	4.56	0.69	6.59	6.96	2.00	5,280
16	2019	286096	Tapestry	4.55	0.63	7.21	7.46	2.90	15,462
17	2020	297030	Tekhenu: Obelisk of the Sun	4.50	0.63	7.10	7.83	4.09	4,114
18	1977	5206	Ogre	4.46	0.70	6.33	6.95	2.34	2,759
19	1983	1608	Ambush!	4.43	0.68	6.56	7.48	3.25	2,264
20	2020	316546	Clever Cubed	4.42	0.68	6.51	7.62	2.52	1,635
21	2018	218421	Street Masters	4.41	0.68	6.51	8.13	2.85	1,204
22	2018	245961	Fleet: The Dice Game	4.35	0.64	6.84	7.74	2.58	2,613
23	1983	508	Blue Max	4.29	0.72	5.99	7.14	2.28	814
24	2019	254713	The Artemis Project	4.28	0.67	6.35	7.29	2.81	1,676
25	2014	150926	Roll Through the Ages: The Iron Age	4.28	0.72	5.96	6.62	2.24	1,223

2.3 Why Are Games Considered Similar?

I first ran a dimension reduction method (PCA) to identify the main points of variation for games on BGG. The first 25 components explained roughly 50% of the overall variation in the dataset, so I computed the cosine similarity between every game’s score on these 25 components.

2.3.1 Plotting All Games

The following plot shows every game on BGG plotted on the first two principal components of variation. I then highlight where the selected game and its nearest neighbors fall on these first two components.

2.3.2 Game Profiles

Similarity scores are based on 25 principal components - the next table displays the selected game and its neighbors profiles on each of these components.

2.3.3 Examining Components

What are these components? The following plot shows which features contribute the most to each component.

Published	ID	Name	Publisher(s)	Designer(s)	Artist(s)	Categories	Families	Mechanics
2021	301441	Drawn to Adventure	Final Frontier Games	Keith Piggott	Mihajlo Dimitrievski	Adventure	Components: Book as Board	Dice Rolling
						Dice	Mechanism: Dice Drafting	Grid Movement
						Exploration	Mechanism: Roll-and-Write	Hexagon Grid
						Fantasy	Setting: The Five Realms	Multiple Maps
								Open Drafting
								Paper-and-Pencil
								Scenario / Mission / Campaign Game
								Solo / Solitaire Game
								Variable Player Powers

Individual Game Analysis